Please enjoy JP Morgan’s take on how investors should think about the current market’s historic run. “On Wednesday, August 22, the current bull market turned 3,453 days old, surpassing the bull run of the 1990s and officially making it the longest bull market on record. Despite generating a total return of over 400% since the market low, this bull market has felt unloved, and investors are now feeling more anxious than ever and wondering how much longer it can continue.
While it is impossible to predict when this bull market will peak with any degree of certainty, history suggests that investors have been rewarded for taking a long-term approach, rather than trying to time the market. As shown in this week’s chart, over the past century, the chance of the market going up or down on any given day has been equivalent to a coin flip. However, over the long run, investors are much more likely to experience a positive return, with rolling 10- and 15-year returns positive 84% and 88% of the time, respectively. More impressively, this sample includes 18 recessions and the pre-WWII era, when it took the market 25 years to reach its 1929 peak. Whether the bull market ends tomorrow or continues on for the next three years remains to be seen, but investors can take solace in the fact that a long-term investment approach has historically worked in their favor.”
Chart of the Week: Source: Dow Jones, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of August 23, 2018.
Thought of the week: Source: Dow Jones, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of August 23, 2018.
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